Unless you are a fantasy drafter that likes to try and grab a perceived elite defense early, you are most likely grabbing one with your last pick or two. Defense is not the most significant position for fantasy football. Most drafters will merely take the defense that they consider good and call it a day. People do not usually research a teams defense like they would any other fantasy position, but why not look at the early season schedule of teams? The position is one I believe you should stream throughout the season. Most of the time, the top 5 defenses never return their draft value. Instead of wasting a pick on a perceived set it and forget it defense, why not pick one up that many may not be thinking about? I am going to list the top 9 defenses that are being taken in drafts. I will then provide you with defenses that have good early season matchups that you can take with one of your last 2 picks. You will most likely need to stream the position at some point during the season anyway. If you can grab one with an easy start, you will provide yourself a little more time to plan for the future.Read More
The RB Handcuff, a very interesting fantasy player that has perceived value were anything to go wrong with the player that is ahead of them. We have seen backs explode when given the opportunity and prove that they were a talented option that was buried on a depth chart and we have seen RBs that are nothing special get a ton of work and produce for fantasy. It is tough to determine who a handcuff truly is especially in today’s NFL. Teams are using more than 1 back on a regular basis now and the true workhorse back is a rarity which is why they are so valuable in drafts. There are a ton of factors going into what makes a handcuff so I am going to run through the list of players that I do not think fully qualify. Handcuffs are players that will see a massive workload increase in the RB in front of them were to go down. They are also players that do not have a ton, if any, standalone value weekly as long as the starter is on the field. I will run through the list of names that are not Handcuffs in my personal opinion first and then I will go through and rank the 14 RB’s that I see as true handcuffs giving you a quick reason why on each. Let’s get started!Read More
It’s draft time, and you’re in a pickle. Mack or Jones? Who do you take? Do you go with consistency or the boom/bust scenario? The stats do not lie, and the offenses dictate who gets the ball. If we look at last year’s stats with a prediction for the 2019 season – we can see that one of these candidates truly stands out.Read More
Is Derrick Henry for real? Last year we saw a glimpse of what Henry was capable of doing at the end of the season, and maybe the Titans have finally figured out that their franchise quarterback is not very good. Maybe they finally figured it out!
Prior to Weeks 14 and 15 Derrick Henry
was competing with Dion Lewis for a running back by committee position, and it wasn’t until Week 14 when the Titans let Henry loose and he went for a 99 yard TD run that led to a 238 yard day with 4 TD’s. The next week we saw him carry the ball for 33 times for 170 yards and 2 TD’s.Read More
Last week I did 1 potential gem on each AFC team so this week we are moving on to the NFC. Finding value in your fantasy drafts is one of the most important things for you to do as a fantasy owner and I am going to give you some potential gems to target when heading into your drafts. To recap, I am considering a “Gem” as a player that is going in the double digit rounds or later. 1 team on this list will have 2 players as I am unsure of what you guys think on one of the players being considered a late round gem so I will explain when I get to that team. As with all of my lists this is based on half point PPR leagues so keep in mind that some players could be either more valuable or less valuable depending on how your league is set up. Without further ado, lets dive right in. Here is 1 potential fantasy gem for each NFC team! (ADP based on half point PPR 12 team leagues.)Read More
Finding value in players that are either forgotten about or ones that have been given up on can give you an advantage when working toward that ever elusive fantasy championship. I am qualifying these gems as late round to undrafted players that can either produce immediately for fantasy or as someone who can or will have value at some point in 2019. Upside is some of these players greatest strengths and I will be running down a varied amount of outcomes that these players could have over the course of 2019 so without further ado lets dive into the potential AFC fantasy gems! (All ADP is based on 12 team Half PPR league current ADP.)Read More
Lamar Jackson became the full time starter for the Ravens in week 11 last season for the Baltimore Ravens pushing Joe Flacco out the door to Denver via traded earlier in the offseason. With Flacco gone the team has put their full trust into their first rounder and will now let him lead the way for the foreseeable future. While the team will be one of the run heaviest in the league, Jackson is a very intriguing fantasy prospect in 2019. He had a massive rushing total in 2019 and while the team has stated they would like him to stay in the pocket more often this year, Jackson will still have a great chance at being the top rushing QB in 2019. His rookie season as a pass showed that he needs a lot of improvement, but heading into year 2 Jackson has sneaky upside as a potential breakout for fantasy based on his propensity to rush the ball alone. Lets dive into his rookie season stats and see if we can predict what his range of outcomes will be in 2019. (All stats are based on 4 point per passing Touchdown scoring.)Read More
Since I have already done an article on 7 Players to Not Draft in 2019 I figured that I should follow up with the guys that are currently some of my favorites for the upcoming season. These are players that I am planting my flag on for the 2019 season and ones that I am currently doing anything I can to get. This is my list and my list alone so let me know who are your fantasy favorites for the 2019 season and suggest who you think should be on this list. I will, of course, update this as the off-season goes on so that they are up to date for draft season. Lets dive in!Read More
The depth at quarterback certainly makes it enticing to wait to draft your starter in one-QB leagues until the later rounds. Guys like Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, Phillip Rivers and Tom Brady are potential options in the double digit rounds of snake drafts and as $1 or $2 buys in standard auctions.
Yet even though there’s a ton of value throughout, knowing which quarterback to specifically target, and when to target them, can have a great effect on your season. Sure, Brady and Goff both sound like great late round steals, but Goff outscored Brady 310.3 to 280.4 in standard leagues last season, a 30-point difference that can be a be something that tips the scales for a playoff birth or more importantly, a title.
Here’s a quick glossary of terms before we get into eight stats worth knowing to prep for your draft:
TT - Time to Throw
CAY - Average Completed Air Yards
IAY - Average Intended Air Yards
AGG% - Aggressiveness
LCAD - Longest Completed Air Distance
xCOMP - Expected Completion Percentage
COMP +/- - Completion Percentage Above ExpectationRead More
Every person has players that they love and hate when heading into their fantasy drafts each year. This is a spin on the typical love/hate articles that are released by many and is my list and mine alone so don’t get to offended if you disagree. There are a multitude of reason why I say I loath these players for 2019 whether it be because I fell they are being drafted to high or it is simply because I do not feel they will produce well in the upcoming season. I will dive into those reasons individually as I list 7 players I currently loath in 2019. I will do an update to this list in August before draft time to keep things current.
Russell Wilson: QB7 overall ADP of 7.04
I want to start things off by stating I think Wilson is a great QB and will still be fantasy relevant for sure. I still believe he will finish as a QB1 and have him ranked as such. However, I feel that things have not gotten much better for him over the offseason. He lost his best WR in Doug Baldwin who had to retire due to multiple injuries and surgeries and while they did add a great rookie WR in D.K. Metcalf, he is no replacement especially immediately for Baldwin. The Seahawks did not add much else for Wilson in terms of pass catching targets and the team will look to use a run heavy approach once again in 2019. While Wilson is normally a force on the ground, he ran for a career low 67 attempts in 2018 and while that could go up in 2019 the loss of Baldwin may cause his passing numbers to suffer a bit. There are just to many questions and many other QB options later in the draft for me to be comfortable taking Wilson in the 7th round hoping he outproduces his QB9 finish last season.
Tom Brady: QB15 overall ADP of 10.09
While the price may not be too steep for Brady this season, I do not believe he will do well this season for fantasy. While he may be the greatest QB we have ever seen, for fantasy I do not love his prospects this upcoming season. He will no longer have TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Josh Gordon does not seem to be reliable by any means in terms of staying on the field. The Patriots did very little to add to Brady’s pass catching group and have implored multiple slot WR’s to the team limiting the deep play for Brady this upcoming year. The Patriots have also added another young RB in rookie Damien Harris to bolster the RB core as they will look to run the ball more in 2019. While Brady’s play has not taken a hit in terms of Touchdown scoring and yardage, he will have a harder time with a limited WR core and no Gronk taking away top coverage. I mainly would like to take picks on higher upside QBs going around or later than Brady than pick him in the 10th round.
Sony Michel RB20 overall ADP of 4.01
Conversely to Brady, I am very nervous of having Michel as my RB in 2019. I think he could very well produce as a top 24 RB by seasons end don’t get me wrong, but with the Patriots looking to run the ball more and Bill Belichick routinely using a committee approach with the position owning Michel looks to be very frustrating in 2019. The addition of rookie Damien Harris complicates things further and James White will still be the 3rd down back and pass catcher out of the backfield. Michel should be the leader in rush attempts out of the backfield, but with White capping his pass catching productivity and the combo of Harris and potentially Rex Burkhead rotating in, Michel does not seem to be a consistent enough option for me to put my RB2 faith in especial as my 4th rounder when guys like Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay going behind him that will have more consistent established roles.
Kareem Hunt: RB35 overall ADP of 7.10
This one baffles me quite a bit. I understand what Kareem Hunt as a player is for fantasy don’t get me wrong. He is an elite pass catcher and has been a workhorse for the Chiefs. That being said, he is suspended for 8 GAMES. That is over half of the fantasy regular season he will have to sit on your bench and when he comes back he will be in a new offense and will share duties with Nick Chubb. While I personally believe that Hunt and Chubb can create a Ingram and Kamara like tandem, he is going to hurt your team by taking up a valuable bench spot for 8 weeks of the season. “But I have an IR spot that I can put suspended players in” I hear you saying and if so that is great for you, but consider the guys you will miss out on by taking Hunt in round 7. Guys going behind him for the next round until your next pick if you take him are in no particular order QB Carson Wentz, RB’s Miles Sanders, Royce Freeman, and LeSean McCoy, WR’s Dante Pettis, Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, D.K. Metcalf, Emmanuel Sanders, and Sterling Shepard and finally TE David Njoku. There are a lot of starters and depth pieces here that I would take in a heartbeat above Kareem Hunt.
WR Calvin Ridley: WR24 overall ADP of 5.09
To be blunt here, I do not trust Calvin Ridley as my WR2 period. I understand the hype. Matt Ryan has 13 dome games this year and Ridley should slide in as the number 2 target if not the number 3 target behind RB Devonta Freeman. He had 10 Touchdowns last year on limited snaps and will get more work so he should be able to continue producing those numbers. While he was impressive and I do think he has a shot at finishing as a WR2, I just do not believe he will be consistent enough for my team. While he will be fighting to be second in targets, WR Mohammed Sanu and TE Austin Hooper will still be involved and Matt Ryan will spread the ball around the offense. This can make things tough when projecting his consistency over the season and I do not want a headache in my WR2 pick in the 5th round. On top of this there are guys going behind him like D.J. Moore and Tyler Boyd that I think will be much more consistent and also have high ceilings week in and week out. I just feel the hype has gone a bit to far on Ridley as he heads into year 2.
James Washington: WR45 overall ADP of 10.04
This one may seem odd to some as the price is not steep for Washington. This is me personally feeling that Donte Moncrief will be the number 2 WR over Washington. Moncrief to me is the perfect compliment to Juju Smith-Shuster and I simply have not seen enough out of James Washington to feel that he will beat out the veteran as the starter in Pittsburgh. I could be completely wrong here as the draft capital was spend on Washington and the offense is wide open at the WR position behind Smith-Shuster, but with guys like Dede Westbrook, Devin Funchess, and Keke Coutee going behind him, I will stay away from Washington and take the value pick on Moncrief if I want a shot at the Steelers WR2 in 2019.
Eric Ebron: TE6 overall ADP of 6.06
I want to say this off the top. Eric Ebron will be a TE1 in 2019. However, I do not have the faith in him to return his TE6 ADP especially on a consistent basis. While I do think Jack Doyle is going to be the man behind Ebron on the depth chart, Doyle and Luck have a strong connection and he will eat into Ebron’s target share and workload over the course of the season. This will make things to frustrating for me to take him as high as he is going in the 6th round. There are to many other good RB’s and WR’s left that I could use on my roster and there are plenty of good plug and play TE’s going behind him. I think this is a product of the hype train taking him to far up the draft boards this season and he is a candidate to regress and disappoint by seasons end.
So what do you think? Let us know and be sure to share and follow us on our social media pages to stay up to date on when we upload! What are your thoughts? Let us know and be sure to share and follow us on our social media pages to stay up to date on when we upload! We are Finish First Fantasy on Facebook, @Finish1Fantasy on Twitter, and we are @finishfirstfantasy on Instagram. Click on the link below to sign up for our newsletter for the latest publications on our site, special discounts, and membership rewards!
By Ryan Larrison, Contributor, Fantasy Football for the People
Everyone wants the have the big time receiver to pair with their Quarterback for their fantasy teams. If you have your starting QB in a good matchup and think he will have a good game then having his top WR to pair with him would be even better. Unfortunately, this can be hard to do especially with top fantasy QB’s with elite WR’s. It could be a lot harder to get pairings like Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton or Aaron Rodgers and Devante Adams, but there are some very affordable QB/WR stacks that you can get on your roster and reap the rewards from. Here are 10 affordable QB/WR stacks you can target in your drafts. I will put their current average draft position next to each player so you know where to look for them.Read More
There are a number of ways to be effective as an NFL receiver.
One way is to be able to out-jump any defender and contort your body in mid-air for ridiculous highlight reel catches. We’ll call that the DeAndre Hopkins method.
But for other, less physically-gifted receivers, creating consistent and solid separation is a more fitting option. That’s what the Yards of Separation (SEP) metric measures, the average amount of space a WR is able to create between himself and a defender in his routes.
To help give some context to the sleepers we’ll discuss shortly, here are some of the SEP numbers from some of the league’s top WRs in 2018. The higher the number, the more separation yards created:
Tyreek Hill – 3.1
Davante Adams – 3
Odell Beckham – 3
Adam Thielen – 2.9
Travis Kelce – 2.9
Antonio Brown – 2.6
DeAndre Hopkins – 2.5Read More
Year 2 is one of the biggest years for any NFL player. With the rookie jitters now gone and the adjustments to the speed of the NFL seemingly behind them, players look to step up and contribute more than they did year 1. Some of these players are already established for fantasy and are currently at the forefront of the minds of fantasy owners. So honorable mentions to the year 2 players that are already well established that I will not be mentioning here. They are Nick Chubb, Phillip Lindsay, and Sony Michel. All of these players are talked about regularly and I want to shine a spotlight on some players that are not talked about as much or have seen their stock drop a bit. Without further ado, lets dive into the year 2 RBs that can take a step forward.Read More
Who doesn’t love a bold predictions list? While most don’t pan out it is still fun to look at what analysts think is possible and who they have strong convictions over. I want to do this list to have a little fun and take some shots at what I think is possible by seasons end. I want to stress this point however. I AM NOT factoring in these bold predictions into my rankings or outlooks. While I do see these things as possibilities and think that they very well could come to fruition, I am not going to advise everyone to take them at face value. For instance if I say a WR could finish top 10 that doesn’t mean that I will have them ranked there. It will be close I am in the market of helping fantasy owners not hurting them with a prediction that could end up being off base. With that said lets have some fun and make some bold predictions!Read More
Alvin Kamara had another stellar season and was involved in all parts of the offense like many had hoped and expected. He shared the field after his former RB running mate Mark Ingram came back from suspension, but this didn’t hinder him from having a top 5 fantasy season at the position. Ingram may have gone to Baltimore, but the Saints have signed former Vikings RB Latavius Murray to play a similar role so Kamara will still be sharing the backfield with another talented runner. Proving that this cannot contain him, Kamara is set up for another big season with the Super Bowl or bust Saints. Just how big of a season? Lets take a look back at his 2018 season and see what we can project for 2019 with his new running mate. (All stats are based on half point PPR scoring.)Read More
1) They were on more ESPN league championship rosters than any other player.
2) None of them were average first round picks based off ESPN ADP last year, with McCaffrey coming in the highest with an ADP of 17.8 and Chubb the lowest with an ADP of 134.2.
Translation: League MVPs don’t need to come in the first round. Surely the first round is your best bet to get the type of difference maker who can carry your team, but once you get into the depths of the draft, rounds 4, 5, 6 and so on, don’t lose sight on the types of players who have the upside to deliver elite fantasy value if things go right for them.Read More
Ebron will finish higher than Doyle in 2019. I know that may seem like an obvious statement, but I have seen the argument that Doyle will finish better at the position. I think Doyle is talented, but I do not think he has the scoring ability that Ebron does. The addition of Funchess is what scares me off of him a bit. With 3 big targets in the redzone for Luck, Ebron will have a much tougher time scoring double digit Touchdowns in 2019. His targets will come down and this will make him less safe than he was in 2018. You made need to pick and chose when to start him over just plugging him to you line up every week. With that said, I still think Ebron’s talent will shine through and a top 10 finish is a strong possibility.Read More
Dalvin Cook ended the 2018 season with 615 rushing yards, 4.6 yards per carry and 4 touchdowns. It wasn’t until week 12 when Cook reminded fantasy owners that he is an RB1. There are 3 important factors to consider here as you enter 2019 fantasy draft.
1) The Vikings waited for Cook to become fully healthy which payed off (unlike Fournette).
2) Mike Zimmer wants to make his team a run first offense, and it showed in the last few games.
3) The last and most important fact is that there is no more Latavius Murray. So, what does that mean for Cook? Well for one, it means the Vikings management fully believes he is healthy enough to be a running back workhorse for the team. As a result, all the goal line work will fall to him, which will make him a consistent fantasy producer. The early rankings show that Cook is the RB12 off the draft board behind guys like James Connor, Joe Mixon, and even David Johnson. In my opinion, Cook will have a breakout season and should be taken only after Melvin Gordon. Cook is young and healthy, he is also on a team that will never see a stacked box, and most importantly no timeshare.Read More
Targets. Targets. Targets. All I want is targets. Did I mention I want targets? The target opportunity, and sure both are the 1st options on their respectful teams; therefore, the targets will be close to identical for both players. Brown, who is arguably the best wide receiver to ever play the game of football, is now on a team with a lot of question marks. The biggest question mark starts with the quarterback Derek Carr. Carr is not a terrible quarterback by all means, but he is an obvious downgrade from Ben Roethlisberger. Brown will demand Carr to throw him the ball no matter the coverage just like he did with Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, the only difference is I don’t believe Carr can be as successful as Roethlisberger.Read More
Cleveland Browns Hype?
Now let’s talk about the newest Cleveland brown member, Odell Beckham Jr, who has a standalone value through his career of a WR1 all season whether it’s fantasy or real football. Beckham Jr. won’t have all the pressure solely focused on him because of Jarvis Laundry opposite of him, who is a back end WR2 in his own right. But let’s focus on Beckham Jr, the guy who last year came back from an injury and was a WR1/2. I believe numbers sometimes do lie and I think it’s the case for Beckham Jr, first he missed 4 games of the season and second and most important thing is that he was getting his targets from Eli Manning. I truly believe that Beckham Jr will put up solid numbers this season and will eclipse 1000 yards easily and accompany that with around 12 touchdowns. He should be the 3rd WR off the draft board following Deandre Hopkins and Devante Adams.Read More